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A smart bet isn’t just about picking the winner — it’s about understanding value and probability.
BTA Sports helps you identify smart bets by comparing our model-driven predictions to sportsbook odds, revealing when the market may have mispriced an outcome.
How BTA Defines a Smart Bet
A smart bet occurs when BTA’s model probability is higher than the implied probability from the sportsbook’s line. This difference is what we call a value gap — it shows when a wager may offer more long-term upside than the market recognizes.
For example, if a sportsbook lists a team at +150 (implied probability 40%), but BTA’s model gives that same team a 54% chance to win, that’s a strong indication of potential value.
Example: Identifying Value in the Game View
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Open the Game View for a matchup — for instance, Colts vs. Falcons.
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BTA’s model predicts Colts -6.46, while FanDuel lists Colts -3.5.
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This 3-point difference signals a potential value gap in favor of Indianapolis.
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BTA’s confidence percentage shows a higher-than-market probability of that outcome covering.
By comparing the BTA Line with sportsbook odds, you can see where model-based projections and market pricing don’t align — and that’s where smart bets are often found.
How to Confirm It in the Risk Analyzer
After identifying a potential value opportunity:
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Add your selection (e.g., Colts -3.5) to your Risk Slip.
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Open the Risk Analyzer.
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Review the win probability and estimated odds based on BTA’s model.
Pro Tip
Even high-probability bets carry risk. Use BTA’s probability and estimated odds tools to optimize your selections, not overextend your exposure.
A 3% edge applied consistently is often more profitable than chasing 10-to-1 long shots.
