What Does “Estimated Win Probability” Mean?

The Estimated Win Probability shown in BTA Sports represents the model-calculated likelihood that a particular outcome — such as a team covering the spread, a total going over, or a player prop hitting — will occur.

It’s a percentage value generated by BTA’s AI prediction models, based on thousands of data points across team performance, player metrics, situational factors, and historical outcomes.

How It Works

When you view any selection in the app (for example, Over 47.5 total points or Player Over 5.5 receptions), BTA’s models simulate that event repeatedly using live data inputs.
The result is a probability score that reflects how often that outcome would be expected to succeed.

Example:

• BTA’s model estimates a team will cover the spread in 64% of simulations.

• The sportsbook odds may imply only a 55% chance.

• That 9% difference represents a value edge, indicating that BTA’s model sees a higher chance of success than the market does.

Why It’s Called “Estimated”

All win probabilities are model estimates — they’re based on statistical analysis, not guarantees.
Because sports outcomes are influenced by unpredictable variables (injuries, weather, game flow, coaching decisions), no model can be 100% certain.

The Estimated Win Probability reflects the best statistical forecast using the data available at that moment.

How to Use It

• Compare to sportsbook odds: If BTA’s Estimated Win Probability is higher than the sportsbook’s implied probability, the line may offer value.

• Refine your selections: Use the Risk Analyzer to see how different combinations of bets affect your overall probability.

• Understand your exposure: High-confidence bets (e.g., 70%+) offer stronger statistical backing; low-confidence bets carry higher volatility.

Key Takeaway

Estimated Win Probability is BTA’s way of showing the true likelihood of success for any bet, based on AI models rather than sportsbook bias.
It’s the foundation of value-based betting — giving you insight into where the real probabilities lie before you commit to a wager.